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Growth recovers, risks heighten (الإنجليزية)

Economic activity in the six South East European countries (SEE6) is picking up speed, and growth in the region is expected to average 1.8 percent for 2015. While the recovery has encouraged job creation, unemployment is still very high, especially for the young. With few jobs being created and high rates of informality, poverty reduction throughout the SEE6 has been lackluster since 2008. SEE6 medium-term growth prospects are positive. There are risks to this overall positive outlook in both directions. In the near term, lower oil prices are expected to continue to support emerging growth in the European Union (EU) economies. Carefully prioritizing economic policies is essential to manage these risks. While macroeconomic stability is necessary for sustained income growth, it is not sufficient; structural issues must be tackled so that the SEE6 countries can accelerate growth and restart their EU convergence process. Over time growth in the region will continue to be affected by such demographic factors as the aging and shrinking of societies across the region.

تفاصيل

  • تاريخ الوثيقة

    2015/09/01

  • نوع الوثيقة

    ورقة عمل (سلسلة مُرقمة)

  • رقم التقرير

    99668

  • مجلد رقم

    1

  • عدد المجلدات

    1

  • المنطقة

    أوروبا وآسيا الوسطى,

  • تاريخ الإفصاح

    2016/01/11

  • حالة الافصاح

    Disclosed

  • اسم الوثيقة

    Growth recovers, risks heighten

  • كلمة أساسية

    nominal effective exchange rate index;Public and Publicly Guaranteed;Labor Market;current account deficit;global financial crisis;Gender Gap;quality of public service;labor force participation rate;real exchange rate impact;direction of trade statistic;female labor force participation;average income per capita;sustainable use of energy;depreciation of exchange rate;national statistical;food price inflation;unit labor costs;labor market participation;external public debt;current account imbalance;international commodity price;external debt ratios;pushing up prices;oil price;domestic demand;supply of labor;flow of credit;floating exchange rate;decline in investment;international financial market;public debt dynamics;youth unemployment rate;labor market development;domestic economic activity;exchange rate data;private credit growth;exchange rate policy;Exchange rate policies;labor market activity;risk of loan;informal labor market;quality and quantity;purchasing power parity;income generating opportunity;rate of convergence;regional growth rate;average exchange rate;social protection system;international oil price;foreign direct investment;federal reserve board;commodity price index;private external debt;regional labor force;labor market adjustment;financial sector regulation;real wage rigidity;adverse weather conditions;local currency value;goods export;income convergence;income loss;oil import;Exchange Rates;trade balance;poverty trend;external financing;net export;real gdp;income growth;global economy;human capital;external balance;Economic Policy;weighted average;home country;gender inequalities;nominal depreciation;public finance;working age;monetary policy;Job Creation;export performance;high share;political cycle;energy price;fiscal consolidation;downside risk;fiscal deficit;global growth;currency movement;fiscal policy;external factor;foreign currency;Fiscal policies;home countries;global commodity;consumer price;social spending;Gender Inequality;private investment;fiscal stance;Fiscal Reform;external shock;increased demand;natural disaster;domestic income;high-skilled emigrants;manufacturing industry;unskilled occupations;Macroeconomic Stability;high unemployment;facilitating trade;monetary aggregate;regional poverty;source country;steady flow;economic migrant;food export;Fiscal Sustainability;public expenditure;oil importer;job offer;input cost;national currency;base case;public revenue;financial flow;simple average;financial indicator;migrant group;national borrower;market fundamentals;capital guarantee;nominal wage;market volatility;gross loans;fiscal impact;asylum application;fiscal side;high debt;political instability;investor confidence;Public Utilities;economic recovery;transit country;border control;Immigration policy;government budget;global risk;transit migration;empirical work;social consequence;consumption demand;weak currency;industrial product;electrical machinery;subsidiary right;Gender Equality;activity rates;market weakness;trading partner;trade partner;youth labor;demographic issue;asset quality;labor participation;lost income;occupational choice;domestic investment;Oil Export;bond yield;international standard;national offices;female participation;income opportunity;negative effect;responsive policy;fiscal burden;retained earnings;fiscal restraint;Public Spending;improving governance;fiscal cost;adverse shock;global financing;aggregate effort;export value;production side;household income;business environment;international integration;Public Services;Natural Resources;demographic factor;productive capacity;gender difference;budget rigidity;productive investment;public arrears;improve revenue;tax base;regional inflation;external trade;high frequency;global demand;demographic transformation;trade deficit;nonperforming loan;administrative datum;Financial Stability;output growth;import cost;market index;exchange index;media relation;export share;floating rate;migration issues;energy component;price level

تنزيل الملفات

تقرير كامل

نسخة رسمية من الوثيقة (قد تضم توقيعات، الخ)