2023 年一季度的经济活动随着出行限制的取消和服务支出激增而有所反弹,但增长势头自 4 月份以来放缓。2023 年一季度 GDP 同比增长 4.5%,高于 2022 年全年 3%的增幅。一季度的复苏得益于被压抑的消费需求的释放、房地产活动的初步改善和政策支持等因素。然而,4 月份以来增长势头放缓,表明中国的复苏仍然脆弱且有赖于政策支持。经济复苏为政策制定者提供了一个重要机会,使其可将重点重新放到更长期的发展目标上。结构性改革对于巩固经济复苏和实现以下更长期目标仍然至关重要:(i)通过以生产率驱动并且环境可持续的增长,到2035...
Economic activity bounced back in Q1 2023 with the removal of mobility restrictions and a surge in spending on services, but growth momentum has slowed since April. GDP expanded by 4.5 percent y/y in the...
中国的经济活动继续随着疫情状况而起伏——疫情暴发和增长放缓过后出现了不均衡的复苏。在2019年新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)爆发以及4月和5月严格的公共卫生措施导致经济下滑之后,随着感染人数的减少,三季度经济活动有所回升。国内生产总值(GDP)同比增长3.9%,而二季度只有0.4%。高频指标显示,四季度由于新冠病例回升,经济增长再次放缓。尽管有财政和货币政策支持,但 2022 年实际 GDP...
Activity in China continues to track the ups and downs of the pandemic - outbreaks and growth slowdowns have been followed by uneven recoveries. After a downturn caused by the Coronavirus disease 2019...
After a strong start in early 2022, the largest COVID-19 wave in two years and resulting mobility restrictions have disrupted China’s growth normalization. The global environment has also significantly...
2022年初中国经济稳健开局,但此后两年来规模最大的新冠疫情以及相应管控扰乱了经济增长的正常化进程。俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后全球经济环境随之恶化。预计2022年实际GDP增速将大幅放缓至4.3%。在国内国外多重阻力下,中国的政策制定者应当谨慎调整其政策。短期内,中国面临着平衡兼顾疫情控制与经济增长的双重挑战。中期而言,需要付诸更多的努力以避免回到借债投资促进增长的老路上。采取果断行动提高消费在经济增长中的作用,解决社会不平等问题,重振创新和提高生产率,将有助于中国走上更加平衡、包容和可持续的增长道路。
继2021年上半年中国经济活动强劲反弹后,下半年经济活动迅速放缓。放缓一部分是由财政紧缩及金融和房地产业监管收紧的相关政策所引发;另一方面,疫情的反复爆发使得接触型服务业活动难以完全正常化。上述因素导致投资急剧放缓,居民消费复苏乏力。尽管在稳健外需的推动下出口表现超出预期,但只能部分抵消投资放缓和消费疲软的影响。除此之外,由于2021年上半年碳排放激增,下半年多地为达到减排目标而限产,加上电力短缺的影响,经济活动因而受到拖累。
Following a strong rebound in the first half of 2021, economic activity cooled rapidly in the latter half of the year. The slowdown was partly policy induced, reflecting significant fiscal tightening and...
China’s economy will post strong growth in 2021. Assuming the continued suppression of COVID-19 (coronavirus), growth is projected to reach 8.5 percent this year before slowing to 5.4 percent in 2022...
China’s economy will post strong growth in 2021. Assuming the continued suppression of COVID-19 (coronavirus), growth is projected to reach 8.5 percent this year before slowing to 5.4 percent in 2022...
Following a collapse in the first quarter of 2020, economic activity in China has normalized faster than expected, aided by an effective pandemic-control strategy, strong policy support, and resilient...
Following a collapse in the first quarter of 2020, economic activity in China has normalized faster than expected, aided by an effective pandemic-control strategy, strong policy support, and resilient...